It is now two years until the next inaugural, and the race to make the person taking the oath someone other than Trump has begun. It’s possible, of course, that sudden death, slow impeachment or abdication and flight to a place with a Trump Tower and no extradition could change that equation. A flight risk is not impossible in the case of a man with his own jet and friends in low places — Moscow, Pyongyang and Ankara.
But for now, the search has got to be for a candidate able to meet the most important job requirement, a plausible path to enough electoral college votes to beat Agent Orange. Thanks to Russian connivance and her own failings as a candidate, Hillary Clinton fell short in essential Rust Belt states.
Demographics favor the Democrats. They will need black votes, Hispanic votes, female votes, suburban votes. Luckily, Trump’s rhetoric, behavior, and policies have given all of them good reasons to vote against the incumbent. The recent midterm results suggest Trump will have a hard time retaining states that made a difference – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. A candidate capable of playing well there, and in farm states damaged by his tariffs would also help.
Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio won reelection in the last election as other statewide races went Republican. His blue-collar roots, reflected in his support for policies designed to respect what he calls “the dignity of work,” are also an advantage.
Joe Biden has similar street cred with a demographic that has drifted farther right, though his age is a worry. Like Biden, Kerry, Bernie and Hillary are a bit long in the tooth, and already had their chances. Second grabs at the golden ring almost never succeed, and in one exceptional case was a disaster – Nixon.
Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota also comes equipped with Midwest mojo, but there’s still some question whether America is ready for a female head of state, even though they have held the highest office in Israel, Britain, Germany, India, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway and so on.
It pains me to have to worry about our backward attitudes in a year when Kamala Harris is running. She seems admirably prepared to strip the bark off Trump who seems to fear strong women who refuse to take his guff. As a former Attorney General and prosecutor, Harris — like Klobuchar – could run a campaign that would essentially constitute a comprehensive indictment of the morals, management, competence and legality of the Trump administration. It is a target-rich environment, and the electorate could serve as judge and jury.
I also admire the vigor, idealism and smarts of Elizabeth Warren’s damning indictment of the blight of America’s economic inequality engineered by a self-serving plutocracy. The argument that the game is rigged played well with those who are ill-paid, ill-educated, underemployed, in debt and without reliable healthcare in an evolving economy in 2016. Warren ought to be able to make the case that they trusted the right message, but the wrong messenger since Trump has betrayed his promises by governing for billionaires like himself, not voters like them. Don’t be fooled again by the party of big money is a plausible Democratic theme.
Obama proved America is prepared to vote for an African American if the stars align. Cory Booker will and Eric Holder might try to see if it’s their turn. Holder would add another member to the virtual legal team indicting Trump. Booker may strike some as too flashy, Holder as too staid. Just right it hard to find.
Some of the newer kids have the usual problem of seeming insufficiently seasoned and short on gravitas for the top job – Gillibrand for one, and Beto for another. The latter has skill on the stump but makes me think of a Peter Drucker remark on business leaders who rise too quickly. They go up like a rocket and come down like a burnt-out stick.
Still, since Millennials are poised to replace the Boomers as the biggest demographic, youth may have to be served. Also interesting are those waiting in the wings like Michael Bennet of Colorado and Julian Castro, another Texan, Schiff and Swalwell. If nothing else they provide fun for those imagining tickets balanced by geography, ethnicity, gender or degree of leftness: Warren/Bennet, Harris/O’Rourke, Brown/Gillibrand, Klobuchar/Castro, Biden/Schiff.
And then there are the billionaires. You’d think Trump would have tarnished that brand, but unlike him Michael Bloomberg has actual governing experience and smarts and succeeded in business with out bankruptcies or bail-outs, though it is hard to imagine him playing well in the middle of the country.
Worse is the spoiler, Howard Shultz, who appears likely to run as an Independent. This is a rich guy’s dodge reminiscent of Ross Perot. It means he doesn’t have to compete in a party’s primaries, which in theory winnow out the chaff. He can sidestep that test and go directly to the general on a sea of caffeinated cash. AS in the case of Trump, he has no government experience and his early remarks prove he is naive about how the game is played. He supposes he will sit down and reason with both parties. Good luck with that.
Worst of all, third party candidacies have regularly thwarted the will of the people by electing a candidate with a minority of the popular vote, or tossing the decision to the antiquated and undemocratic electoral college.
In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate against fellow Republican Taft, giving the win to Democrat Woodrow Wilson with just 42% of the vote. Ross Perot won 20% of the vote in 1992, allowing Clinton to win the presidency with just 43%. Four years later, Perot ran again but only garnered 8.4%, and Clinton was reelected, but still by less than 50 percent.
In 2000, George W. Bush lost the popular vote to Al Gore 47.9 to 48.4 but won the electoral college. However, the Green Party candidate Ralph Nader won more votes in both Florida and New Hampshire than Gore’s losing margin. If Gore had won either of those states, the electoral college would have named him president.
And in 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton but won the electoral college. If Libertarian, Independent and Green Party candidates hadn’t drained away almost 5% of the vote total, the race would probably have been decided by the popular vote not the electoral college. In short, why wait? Impeach Howard Schultz Now! And hope for a winner with over 50% of the vote for a change.