My Bad or Rust Never Sleeps

A slight correction thanks to the ever-watchful reader. In my recent Did Trump Win or Hillary Lose post, I quoted “Behind Trump’s Victory” statistics from Pew Research Center. I said they said Obama carried 18-29 voters in 2012 60-36 while Trump got them by a 57-38 margin.

Levon Page, a computer science/math professor, suggested correctly that I had transposed the numbers and, in fact, Clinton had carried millennials by the smaller 57-38 margin, not Trump. He was right and I was wrong.

When I first got into the newspaper racket I was surprised to notice how often patently incorrect dollar amounts and other statistics got into print, often off by several decimal places or orders of magnitude.

I thought there were two reasons. News people tend to belong to the word tribe rather than the math tribe, and as a result tend to be credulous when numbers are provided by supposedly authoritative sources.

But a moment’s thought would often suggest the faulty data couldn’t possibly be correct. Too much money for the project under discussion or too little. Or, as in this case, a ridiculously huge change, as in my faulty transposition of the numbers of millennials going for Trump.

But Pew is a reputable outfit and the Trump win was so surprising that no surpise in how he did it seemed too crazy to contemplate. But in fact Pew was reputable and I was the dope who wrote their numbers down backwards and failed to subject them to the smell test.

My bad. Sorry millennials, you don’t deserve the blame for the Trump debacle (though 38 percent of you have got some ‘splainin’ to do). Alas, most of the fault lies with my cohort not with yours.

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