When my Aunt Vi, a lifelong Republican, was ninety, Bob Dole was the candidate of her party against Bill Clinton. Yet she wasn’t going to vote for Dole. At 73, she thought he was too old for the rigors of the presidency.
I am not quite Aunt Vi’s age, but she may have been on to something. Despite all the hype about 70 being the new 50, age takes its toll. As people age they become less mentally acute, their memories more difficult to retrieve, their information out of date, their tempers shorter, their outlook narrower, their mood more judgmental, and their inclination retrospective rather than prospective.
A glance at the behavior of the present occupant of the Oval Office, the oldest president ever elected, suggests advanced years may not be a recommendation in a nuclear-armed leader. If he were to win a second term he’d be 79 when he left office. Imagine what that would look like!
The next oldest president in history was Ronald Reagan. His final years in office, which he left at 78, were also characterized by lapses in judgement, to be generous, and during his years in office he underwent five procedures for various cancers. Famously, Churchill got the Brits through WWII, but was promptly given the boot in 1945 when there was a hunger for new blood and a new deal. He was 71.
The Spartans were ruled by a council of elders over 60 appointed or life, the Gerousia from the same root as geriatric. Given the history of the Spartans, their use of this form of government may not be a recommendation. Similarly, the Roman word Senate comes senex, meaning old men, from the same root as senile.
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Though we began as a country of young revolutionaries, sixty-four of our 100 Senators are now over 60, many way over and frequently absent for reasons of health. The average age of the present Supreme Court is 68, and it’s on the youngish side, due to an attempt by Republicans to put Scalians on the court that will still be there until 2060, even if on life support. (Though it should never be forgotten that John Marshall, the greatest of them all, was 36 when he became chief justice.)
It hasn’t always been this way. Of 45 presidents, one left office in his 40s, involuntarily, John F. Kennedy. Twenty-one left office still in their 50s and 21 in their 60s. Only Reagan, and now Trump, will have finished their Presidencies in their 70s.
Those presidents generally ranked highest also left office before achieving elder statesman status. After two terms, Washington and Jefferson were 65 upon leaving, Lincoln was 56, and the two Roosevelts were 50 and 63.
In the 18 elections since Wold War II, Democrats have nominated the younger candidate 13 times as befits the more progressive, less conservative party. In many cases pitting one young candidate against a considerably older one, the older has lost — including Ford, George H. W. Bush at 68 vs. Clinton, 46, Dole, McCain and Romney. Three of the older candidates who won benefitted from special circumstances. Truman succeeded the beloved FDR on his death, Eisenhower was a war hero, and Reagan faced an extremely unpopular incumbent.
All of which suggests those hoping to unseat Trump may want to nominate a younger candidate, yet those being named as likely to challenge him include people who are already on Medicare and Social Security or close to it. In 2020, Jerry Brown will be 82, Bernie Sanders 79, Joe Biden 78 and Elizabeth Warren 71, Sherrod Brown 68, Deval Patrick 64 and Andrew Cuomo 63.
Only a few of the possible contenders are under sixty— Kamala Harris would be 56 in 2020, and Kirsten Gillibrand 54. Among the farfetched non-politicians encouraged by the examples of Trump, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura, Oprah would be 66, Mark Cuban 61, Dwayne Johnson 48, and Mark Zuckerberg 36.
Voters may have to decide which is worse, doddering back numbers or people learning the toughest job in the word on the job. More to the point, will voters prefer four more years of the geriatric, turn-back-the-clock Trump or some other member of the Silent 50s and Baby Boom — those dying generations— or will they be hungry for a forward-looking voice of the rising generations?
By 2020, over 60% of the electorate will be made up of Gen-Xers and Millennials. If Democrats give them a candidate for whom they’ll turn out, things are likely to take another surprising turn. One caveat, however. It was the Rust Belt that give Trump the edge, and only two candidates on the list of the oldies seem to talk the language of that demographic — Biden and Sherrod Brown. Will they play equally well with the essential Millennials?