On a single day in August, the conviction on eight counts each of Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen marked a watershed moment for the Trump administration. As Winston Churchill said in another fraught time for democratic government, “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
Cohen’s conviction on two counts of campaign finance violations was for paying hush money to Trump sexual partners. And in confessing to the crime Cohen said he had been directed to do it by Trump. That means they were acting in order to illegally influence a presidential election, and that makes the President an unindicted co-conspirator. Cohen has also offered to cooperate with the Mueller probe in detailing other presidential crimes to which he was a witness.
A very interesting question now is what is preventing Manafort, and all the other shady characters in Trump’s orbit with similar knowledge of presidential crimes and the hijacking of an American election, from cooperating fully with the Special Counsel in hopes of a reduced sentence.
Among the explanations offered are loyalty to a man not known for returning the favor. Alternatively, some believe Manafort and others may be holding out for pardons, but that also relies on Trump acting in a way that might put him in greater jeopardy, not less. He is already at risk of being charged with obstructing justice for impeding the investigation into Russian meddling. Pardons could be viewed as unpardonable, even by some of his slavish supporters in Congress.
I want to offer a modest proposal for an alternative reason why Manafort and some others may be reluctant to tell all they know. Some have argued that those with dirt on Trump may fear the President’s vengeance, but it isn’t clear that enduring Trump’s wrath would be worse than serving a long prison sentence.
However, it is possible that spilling the beans on Trump could also implicate people far scarier than Trump. It may be far-fetched, but Manafort and others could fear the consequences of ratting out and exposing to legal or governmental attention not Trump so much as Russian oligarchs, Russian mobsters, and even the Russian capo di tutti capi, boss of all the bosses, Vladimir Putin.
Manafort moved in dark and dangerous circles, and the criminal attempt to steal an election for Trump, as has been amply shown by the intelligence community and Mueller’s indictments, can be traced back to Putin’s Russia, his cybercrimes apparatus, and his oligarchic henchmen.
If Manafort or others witting of the details of the plot began to sing, Trump might tweet angrily. But those who offend Putin experience more unpleasant chastisement. What do these people do when crossed? Well, being poisoned with a nerve agent comes to mind. Other critics have simply disappeared.
Putin’s thugs have even shot down a commercial airliner killing 298 persons by accident. They thought it was an enemy plane. But they were unrepentant. “You can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs,” Lenin is said to have remarked concerning the Red Terror that killed an estimated 500,000.
This in nastiness on a whole different scale from the chicanery of a crooked New York landlord, philanderer, and fake TV businessman. If you were Manafort, or Trump, you too might prefer some restful jail time or impeachment to angering these particular partners in crime. As Fredo learned the hard way, don’t ever take sides against the family.
Maybe it isn’t the American public or his base Trump’s talking to when he keeps braying, “No collusion. No collusion.” He may really be saying, “ I won’t tell. Don’t nerve gas me, please.”