What do Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, Nixon, and George W. Bush have in common? They won another presidential term in the middle of a war. The American voter rarely chooses to change horses in the middle of threats from abroad.
There are caveats, of course. Johnson’s war in Vietnam was so unpopular he doubted his ability to win reelection and choose not to run. Truman’s quagmire was Korea. He also choose not to run again, though he had completed 7 years in office. Not surprisingly voters felt comfortably entrusting a country at war to Eisenhower, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe during World War II. George H.W. Bush, though he had won a partial victory against Iraq, had left Saddam in power and seemed out of touch with voters’ economic concerns. He lost the domestic battle.
Still, saber-rattling is a familiar tool of candidates and may explain Trump’s on-again, off-again threats against Iran. Like his fire and fury talk toward North Korea, his promise of ruination for China’s economy, promise to invade Venezuela, and fear mongering about invading caravans on our border, it makes him look tough for a news cycle and distracts attention from less flattering news.
His base likes tough talk of the barroom bully variety, standing up to our adversaries, real and imagined, waving the flag, and dissing alien races. Unfortunately, when Trump actually takes action it is often at odds with the interests of his acolytes.
His promise to win a trade war with China sounded great. The reality is a loser for American farmers, manufactures, importers, retailers and consumers. Many Fortune 500 companies have begun to warn of declining sales, rising costs, and the need for layoffs. Farm states are deeply troubled. Poking Huawei in the eye now seems likely to have the unintended consequence of losing internet and phone access for millions of rural voters. The robust economy Trump inherited from Obama has continued to chug along, but economic and military warfare could undermine it by 2020.
Galloping off to an actual war would cost the lives of soldiers largely drawn fromTrump’s base, and he ran promising to get out of inconclusive, ill-advised, bloody, endless commitments in the Middle East. Getting in a shooting war with Iran could be an even more spectacular mess than Afghanistan, Iraq, or Syria, especially since he has alienated most of the allies we have relied on in previous adventures in the region.
Trump is good a making a daily ruckus, but devoid of foresight. When the daily ruckus involves calling political rivals sophomoric names, who cares? But hot, cold and economic wars are more consequential than his usual performance art.
He may try to run on cutting taxes, but his voters gained little compared to the CEO and Mar-A-Lago class —the same elites he promised to protect his voters from. He also ran promising to build big, beautiful infrastructure but has refused to cooperate with Congress to get it done. He promised cheaper, better health care for all Americans and has tried to take it away from thirty million citizens, many in the demographic he appeals to.
He promised to drain the swamp and fix the rigged Washington-Wall Street game, but it looks more rigged than ever. His appointees to cabinet posts have abused their power, practiced crony capitalism, and profited from public service at the expense of the public.
He continues to obstruct justice and cover up his own profiteering. He is illegally denying access to his tax returns, to Deutsche Bank records that suggest a pattern of money laundering by members of the Trump and Kushner families, and is impeding investigations into violations of the emoluments clause that prohibit bribes from foreign interests. He is now vying with Nixon, Harding, Buchanan, and Andrew Johnson for most corrupt administration in American history.
Trump promised to make America great again, but has done so only for crony capitalists, the top one percent of taxpayers, money launderers, white supremacists, foreign despots, and the reactionary right whose votes he has bought with the appointment of judges willing to protect the agenda of the gun lobby, criminalize abortion, and deny equal right to women, and minorities of every sort.
In the absence of tangible accomplishments and as the number of threats to his survival keep proliferating, he is sure to require bigger and better distractions. The 2020 play book will certainly amount to a reprise of his greatest hits — fake news, witch hunt, Mueller report, no collusion, no obstruction, caravans, crime, sanctuary cities, Chuck and Nancy, the plot against him by the forces of darkness.
Will a majority of the voters fall for the martyr act when it is they who are suffering from his maladminstration? As Trump like to say, we’ll see.