It is always nice when a mystery is unraveled. Mendel and his peas. The Rosetta Stone. And now, why so many poor and working class white voters seem to back a party not aligned with their economic interests. Okay, so it’s not quite up there with Copernicus, but it is a baffling question.

From FDR through Lyndon Johnson working class voters, especially white voters, believed that the Democratic Party represented their economic interests and they voted accordingly. The schisms created by the war in Vietnam, the Civil Rights movement and the so-called counter-culture helped win the white South for Nixon, who also attracted what came to be called the hard hat vote.

Reagan solidified the Republican hold on what then became known as Reagan Democrats, also known as Joe Six-pack. The conventional wisdom has been that this demographic — made up largely of older, less educated, blue collar, white men — votes for the party of capital and the enemy of labor largely for reasons of race, religion, guns, abortion and so forth.

What if the conventional wisdom is wrong, or only half right? A revealing analysis of voting practices from Alec MacGillis in the New York Times is entitled “Who Turned My Blue State Red?” It discovers an alternative explanation for this mystery of why voters hard-pressed economically choose a party that opposes Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unions, unemployment insurance, education spending and student loans, the minimum wage and a host of other safety net provisions.

MacGillis found that the notion that working class white voters in places “like Eastern Kentucky and other former Democratic bastions” were swinging Republican is largely an illusion. In fact, such voters “are, by and large, not voting against their interests by electing Republicans. Rather, they are not voting, period.”

Here’s a revealing chart showing some of MacGillis’s data. Down the left are the percent of all voters who fall into a category — described in the middle column. Down the right side are the percent of likely Non-Voters who fall into the same category. So, for example, 18 percent of all voters received a means-tested government benefit. That is, one reserved for those at the poorest end of the income scale. But 33 percent of non-voters received such a benefit.

% of all voters % of likely non-voters
18% Received a means-tested benefit 33%
21% Borrowed money from family or friend 41%
30% Had trouble paying bills 45%
19% Had income under 30K 46%
7% Don’t have health insurance 24%
23% Don’t have a credit card 48%
28% Don’t have a retirement account 63%

Clearly, a great many people who are subsisting at the margins economically haven’t changed their allegiance from Democratic to Republican Party, but have no political allegiance whatsoever. And lest one think this is a phenomenon confined to minorities, it turns out that 57% of non-voters are white.

There are two ways to win elections – get your voters to the polls or keep your opponent’s voters away from the polls. Efforts by Republicans at voter suppression are much in the news, especially as it concerns black voters, Hispanic voters and young voters. But this data reveals that Democrats are failing miserably when it comes to turning our millions of white voters who are beneficiaries of programs and policies that their party pioneered and represents. Bad to be beaten by the enemy. Worse to beat yourself.