Gerontocracy

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When my Aunt Vi, a lifelong Republican, was ninety, Bob Dole was the candidate of her party against Bill Clinton. Yet she wasn’t going to vote for Dole. At 73, she thought he was too old for the rigors of the presidency.

I am not quite Aunt Vi’s age, but she may have been on to something. Despite all the hype about 70 being the new 50, age takes its toll. As people age they become less mentally acute, their memories more difficult to retrieve, their information out of date, their tempers shorter, their outlook narrower, their mood more judgmental, and their inclination retrospective rather than prospective.

A glance at the behavior of the present occupant of the Oval Office, the oldest president ever elected, suggests advanced years may not be a recommendation in a nuclear-armed leader. If he were to win a second term he’d be 79 when he left office. Imagine what that would look like!

The next oldest president in history was Ronald Reagan. His final years in office, which he left at 78, were also characterized by lapses in judgement, to be generous, and during his years in office he underwent five procedures for various cancers. Famously, Churchill got the Brits through WWII, but was promptly given the boot in 1945 when there was a hunger for new blood and a new deal. He was 71.

The Spartans were ruled by a council of elders over 60 appointed or life, the Gerousia from the same root as geriatric. Given the history of the Spartans, their use of this form of government may not be a recommendation. Similarly, the Roman word Senate comes senex, meaning old men, from the same root as senile.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Though we began as a country of young revolutionaries, sixty-four of our 100 Senators are now over 60, many way over and frequently absent for reasons of health. The average age of the present Supreme Court is 68, and it’s on the youngish side, due to an attempt by Republicans to put Scalians on the court that will still be there until 2060, even if on life support. (Though it should never be forgotten that John Marshall, the greatest of them all, was 36 when he became chief justice.)

It hasn’t always been this way. Of 45 presidents, one left office in his 40s, involuntarily, John F. Kennedy. Twenty-one left office still in their 50s and 21 in their 60s. Only Reagan, and now Trump, will have finished their Presidencies in their 70s.

Those presidents generally ranked highest also left office before achieving elder statesman status. After two terms, Washington and Jefferson were 65 upon leaving, Lincoln was 56, and the two Roosevelts were 50 and 63.

In the 18 elections since Wold War II, Democrats have nominated the younger candidate 13 times as befits the more progressive, less conservative party. In many cases pitting one young candidate against a considerably older one, the older has lost — including Ford, George H. W. Bush at 68 vs. Clinton, 46, Dole, McCain and Romney. Three of the older candidates who won benefitted from special circumstances. Truman succeeded the beloved FDR on his death, Eisenhower was a war hero, and Reagan faced an extremely unpopular incumbent.

All of which suggests those hoping to unseat Trump may want to nominate a younger candidate, yet those being named as likely to challenge him include people who are already on Medicare and Social Security or close to it. In 2020, Jerry Brown will be 82, Bernie Sanders 79, Joe Biden 78 and Elizabeth Warren 71, Sherrod Brown 68, Deval Patrick 64 and Andrew Cuomo 63.

Only a few of the possible contenders are under sixty— Kamala Harris would be 56 in 2020, and Kirsten Gillibrand 54. Among the farfetched non-politicians encouraged by the examples of Trump, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Jesse Ventura, Oprah would be 66, Mark Cuban 61, Dwayne Johnson 48, and Mark Zuckerberg 36.

Voters may have to decide which is worse, doddering back numbers or people learning the toughest job in the word on the job. More to the point, will voters prefer four more years of the geriatric, turn-back-the-clock Trump or some other member of the Silent 50s and Baby Boom — those dying generations— or will they be hungry for a forward-looking voice of the rising generations?

By 2020, over 60% of the electorate will be made up of Gen-Xers and Millennials. If Democrats give them a candidate for whom they’ll turn out, things are likely to take another surprising turn. One caveat, however. It was the Rust Belt that give Trump the edge, and only two candidates on the list of the oldies seem to talk the language of that demographic — Biden and Sherrod Brown. Will they play equally well with the essential Millennials?

Abandon Hope, All Who Enter Here

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That’s what the sign warned Dante at the entrance to Hell. But, as Mephistopheles says in “Dr. Faustus” when asked why he isn’t in hell, “Why, this is hell, nor am I out of it.” And so are the rest of us, I’m afraid.

At first, the idea of Trump running for President was a joke. Then he ran, and the idea he would survive the primaries against seasoned, knowledgable Republicans was absurd. His first words off the escalator — Mexican rapists — seemed sure to doom him.

But, mirabile dictu, there apparently was an audience of 60 million Americans for crude, bombastic, uninformed, racist, misogynistic, simplistic, fraudulent populism. He won the nomination despite a history of race bating, corruption, indictments, bankruptcies and illegal business practices.

But surely in the General Election the country would reject the notion of such a creature occupying the position once held by Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Roosevelt. Unfortunately, we forget the presidency was also held by Jackson, Buchanan, Arthur, Hayes, Harding, and Nixon. Trump won, despite evidence he was aided by Russian meddling with the election, and the accusations by multiple women that he committed sexual assault or harassment of them, a claim confirmed by his own words on an “Access Hollywood” tape and appearances on Howard Stern.

Since then, he has performed about as one might have expected, endangering our national security, health, welfare and national ideals and identity. He has dedicated himself to being the president not of all the people, but of the fraction that voted for him. And has seemed to view the office as he did his business, an opportunity to enrich himself and increase his celebrity.

And despite protests, editorials, national angst, organizing, and the gnashing of teeth, nothing will change for the next three years. If we survive. The fanciful notion that the forces of light will vanquish the darkness is childish. The Republican majority has formed itself into a praetorian guard to protect the emperor from his own atrocities while they govern, enriching their donors and remaking the government to perpetuate their reign.

What about the 25th Amendment? Let’s get Trump declared mentally incompetent. By whom? Vice President Pence and the Trump cabinet? They are little better than ventriloquist dummies. When Trump isn’t tweeting and golfing, he pulls their strings. And when they try to disagree with him, he tweet-shames them.

So, for instance, he describes a whole continent as being comprised of shithole countries and Sens. Tom Cotton and David Perdue go deaf. They didn’t hear any such thing. Neither did Homeland Security Secretary Kristjen Nielsen, nor was she aware that the home of people with her last name, Scandinavia, is populated by white persons.

Very well, then, let’s impeach him for high crimes and misdemeanors uncovered everyday by the press and the investigations of Senate, House and Special Prosecutor. But again, a very high bar. Will the Republicans needed to reach two-thirds of the House and Senate vote to remove the man who signs anything they put before him? Fat chance. With him in charge, they are hurrying to enact a decades-old wish list of measures designed to eliminated what they call the “welfare state” or the “regulatory state.” Others call it, “civilization.”

In fact, they are actively colluding themselves. Not to uncover Trump’s malfeasance, incompetence, and corrupt practices, his transgressions of the emoluments clause, obstruction of justice, and cooperation with a foreign power to tamper with an election, but to change the subject to Fake News.

Chris Steele, a former MI6 investigator hired to do oppo research on Trump, turns up alarming traces of a connection between the Trump campaign and Russian attempts to influence the election in his favor. He brings it to the attention of the FBI. Do Republicans like Sen. Charles Grassley seek to give him a medal for service to our country’s security?

They do not. Instead, they ask the FBI to consider a criminal indictment of Steele for lying to the FBI. He’s part of a plot to smear Trump and distract attention from the crimes of Hillary Clinton which fired FBI Director Comey was trying to cover up. They want the Trump Dossier ignored, and the case against Hillary reopened.

According to this conspiracy theory, they are the villains that Americans need to worry about. Not Trump, Sr, Trump, Jr., Kushner, Manafort, Putin, Papadopuolos, Flynn, Assange and additional players to be named later. In other words, the cover up is in full swing. And there aren’t enough votes to stymie it either.

Thus, the Conman-in-Chief will very likely remain in power until voted out in 2020. Until 2024, if he can succeed in branding the truth fake news, can distract attention from what his government is up to, can put more and more toadies in positions of power, pack the courts with judges that will help suppress the vote of minorities. With any luck, he may succeed in giving us El President Don, Jr., or Ivanka in 2028.

There is a slight chance that Democrats may win enough seats in 2018 to disrupt this scenario. They would then be able to conduct meaningful oversight, issue subpoenas and investigate high crimes, but would still lack enough votes to impeach or convict unless a substantial number of Republicans decided to put country above party.

Or, if public opinion on Trump turned so negative that a vote for impeachment began to look like vote for self-preservation. But in a lot of red states, that isn’t going to happen. If everything from a stolen election to Charlottesville to a great, big nuclear button to hush money to porn stars hasn’t soured the base on Trump, what will?

That leaves only the possibility that the fattest president since Taft and the oldest ever elected will flop over and eliminate the threat to the Republic he poses. But according to his doctor, he’s in robust good heath, isn’t crazy, has good genes and no vices, other than his diet, egomania, cruelty, and ignorance. As we know, only the good die young. So, to paraphrase Bette Davis in “All About Eve,” Fasten your seat belts. We’re in for a hell of a ride. Sad.

Ship Of Fools

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It is said that all philosophy come out of Plato. Apparently all punditry too, since his allegory of the Ship of Fools seems to perfectly describe today’s Ship of State and the government shutdown engineered by its hapless captain and pigheaded crew.

Plato’s captain of the Ship of Fools is going deaf and blind and has little skill at navigating. His vain sailors crowd around him, each demanding to be given the helm. If the captain chooses one or another, his rivals throw the latest favorite overboard.

The sober-minded, reliable sailors who understand the art of navigation are dismissed as dreamy stargazers. And since the crew can’t cooperate and ignore the able seamen, the ship comes to ruin.

In Washington, our feckless captain boasts of being a master negotiator, but can’t bear for anyone else to get credit, has too feeble a grasp of the intricacies of policy to be able to find a middle ground, fears the wrath of his base if he actually compromises, and therefore listens to the last, most zealous crewman to get his ear. He decides nothing and lets the crew feud while he send mocking tweets from his cabin rather than come up on deck and steer.

His fractious crew is really two crews, made up of Ds and Rs, but the Rs control both Houses of Congress, the engine room and the sails. Still, they need some Democratic votes to pass a budget, and pressing issues such as DACA and CHIP on which time will soon run out.

Clearly, the sane solution is to compromise, but both sides have demonized the other and worry more about any agreement looking like a sign of weakness than about the risk of wrecking the ship. So, instead of settling for half a loaf, they get no loaf at all, and allow the government to shutdown. This is like running a ship onto the rocks rather than cooperate in sailing it safely to port.

For their part, the Ds fraction of the crew feels betrayed. The captain promised that if they sat down with the Rs and negotiated a deal, he’d sign it and take the heat. So, they made such a deal, and he threw it back in their faces, and now is accusing them of sole responsibility for his shutdown, and of risking lives with an unguarded border and an unfunded military.

Captain Trump’s claims are refuted by instant replay showing the Ds did offer the kind of deal he said he’d sign and it was spurned. In part this is because his own R crew’s bickering factions can’t agree on a plan, let alone allow a compromise with the Ds in the crew.

Unable to trust the captain or the Rs, the Ds are now inclined to let the rest of the fools try to solve a problem that requires more votes than they possess, hoping arithmetic will eventually persuade them to cooperate on a solution. But meanwhile, the Ship of State is dead in the water.

This would all be a hilarious commentary on human vanity and folly except for one thing. While the vainglorious President and fractured Congress are bickering, bungling, and calling each other schoolyard names, there are 320 million passengers aboard this particular ship. And it appears neither captain nor crew can be bothered with the fact that they are all lost at sea together and in danger of going down with the ship.